best points: drugs aren't limited by the ability to write code or do things on a computer. Maybe if we have fully embodied robots and fully automated assembly lines to generate organic compounds and test them with extremely realistic simulations it may help slightly (there is still the FDA and production barrier). Its just wildly unrealistic.
AI has made good progress in text, code, math, digital images, and digital music. Basically troves of data that can be automated and trained on, validated, and with a purely digital interface. Outside of that, just gathering the data will be difficult, regulated, and sparse (that is if anyone will even give it to you now). While we can write a test to make sure we could generate drugs of the past, verifying we have generated any new working correct drugs is an RL loop with one iteration costing years and millions of dollars.
Maybe there are people permitted to speak about science and medicine with Claude but any time I tried I would get my session [bio] locked. I take those discussions to Gemini that is perfectly willing to discuss epigenetics, supplements, peptides, cell reprogramming, safe sourcing of peptide API manufacturing, 503A/503B compounding, etc... What other LLM's are people using for such discussions and analysis?
I remember when we were having more or less this same conversation about IBM’s Watson. It wasn’t even that long ago.
The most interesting difference between then and now is that we didn’t have tech enthusiasts getting quite so invested in the conversation. Possibly because we were all familiar with IBM’s decades-long history of shipping overhyped and underwhelming products.
Unfortunately we seem to have yet to realize that that’s a habit that’s endemic to the tech industry, and instead see it as thousands of isolated cases that, only by sheer dumb coincidence, happen to comprise the bulk of the tech industry.
being close to someone with a rare terminal and slow-moving cancer that can take years and years to kill its host, i’ve been learning that even just testing whether a therapy is going the right way can take many years, so while i hope “magic happens” i have to concur that the statements being made ahead of a mega IPO seem a bit tragicocomical.
No, he is hating on claims of an obvious im-possibility. Even if Claude gave us the exact recipe and dosage for a cancer curing drug today, it still wouldn't be available in the next 10 years, as Dario Amodei claims.
AI has made good progress in text, code, math, digital images, and digital music. Basically troves of data that can be automated and trained on, validated, and with a purely digital interface. Outside of that, just gathering the data will be difficult, regulated, and sparse (that is if anyone will even give it to you now). While we can write a test to make sure we could generate drugs of the past, verifying we have generated any new working correct drugs is an RL loop with one iteration costing years and millions of dollars.
It would be a sign of some kind of mental derangement… so likely it’s cynical hyping beyond all realistic prospects.
The most interesting difference between then and now is that we didn’t have tech enthusiasts getting quite so invested in the conversation. Possibly because we were all familiar with IBM’s decades-long history of shipping overhyped and underwhelming products.
Unfortunately we seem to have yet to realize that that’s a habit that’s endemic to the tech industry, and instead see it as thousands of isolated cases that, only by sheer dumb coincidence, happen to comprise the bulk of the tech industry.
If he's selling (figuratively) Anthropic IPO, I want to buy it.
Few persons were publicly as wrong on LLMs as he was.
I wonder if AI will also cure psychopaths.
Dario Amodei is in pure snake oil territory now.
Sorry - when has he not been?
Any statement from Nostradamus yet?
The average of subjectivity isn’t the same as objectivity